New condo launches routinely sell 80-90% of units within a weekend, at prices well above nearby resale. Part of the reason may be a payment structure that lets buyers commit today, and defer the real financial reckoning until years later.
The Progressive Payment Scheme likely does contribute to higher new condo prices, alongside better finishes, longer remaining lease and rising land costs — because it lets buyers commit to a purchase today while deferring the bulk of their loan repayment until years later.
Singapore's new condo launches keep posting striking numbers — sales rates of 80%, even 90%, within a single launch weekend, and premiums of 40% or more per square foot over comparable resale units nearby. The Business Times recently posed a sharp question worth sitting with: is the Progressive Payment Scheme (PPS) itself part of what's fuelling these prices?
Buyers of uncompleted new condo units typically pay a cumulative 20% of the purchase price upon signing the Sale and Purchase Agreement. The next 25% is due when the project reaches Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) — often 2 to 3 years after purchase. The remaining 15% is only payable at Certificate of Statutory Completion, which follows TOP.
The key difference from resale: a resale buyer needs to service their full home loan almost immediately after purchase. A new-launch buyer using PPS doesn't need to worry about servicing housing loan repayments until some time after the unit is bought — the real financial commitment is deferred by years, not due on day one.
That deferral may be exactly what allows buyers to act more aggressively on price than they otherwise would. If you're not financing the full loan today, the psychological and practical barrier to committing to a higher price point is lower — even if the eventual repayment burden is just as real.
Two assumptions could be driving that aggressive bidding. First, that personal income will rise meaningfully by the time the full loan repayment kicks in — a professional might be counting on pay climbing more than 25% over 3 years through promotions or a job change. Second, for those upgrading from an existing home, that its resale value will climb by a significant margin by the time they need to sell to fund the new purchase.
Both assumptions carry real risk, particularly with a job market that's seen more disruption lately. If income growth doesn't materialise, or an existing home doesn't appreciate as much as hoped, the buyer may need to raise significantly more equity than originally planned — precisely when they can least afford to.
Take a household upgrading from HDB to a new $3 million condo (roughly 1,000 sq ft at $3,000 psf). Financing at a 25:75 equity-to-debt ratio means finding $750,000 in equity, likely from HDB sale proceeds after paying down any outstanding loan. The monthly repayment on the remaining $2.25 million loan, over 25 years at 2% per annum, works out to $9,537.
| Income Percentile | Monthly Income (2025) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 50th | $12,446 | +7.7% |
| 60th | $15,553 | +7.9% |
| 70th | $19,394 | +7.0% |
| 80th | $24,673 | +7.1% |
| 90th | $33,616 | +6.1% |
That $3 million purchase price works out to roughly 10.1 times the 80th percentile household's annual income, and 12.9 times the 70th percentile's. These are meaningful multiples — and they only work out comfortably if the income and appreciation assumptions built into the decision actually hold up over the following years.
Regulators appear to already be watching how deferred payment structures affect buyer behaviour. For Executive Condominium sites with tender closing dates on or after 8 May 2026, the Minimum Occupation Period has been extended from 5 to 10 years, and developers are no longer permitted to offer the Deferred Payment Scheme — under which buyers would pay just 20% upfront with the remaining 80% deferred until TOP — for uncompleted EC projects.
Whether similar scrutiny eventually extends to the standard Progressive Payment Scheme for private condos remains an open question. For now, PPS remains available exactly as described — which is precisely why understanding its effect on your own buying psychology, not just the headline price, matters.
I've seen this play out with clients: PPS makes a purchase feel more affordable today than it will actually be in 3 years. That's not a criticism of the scheme itself — it's a genuinely useful tool for cash flow — but it does mean the real test of affordability isn't "can I make the 20% now," it's "can I comfortably service the full loan at TOP, using today's income, not a hoped-for future one."
Before committing to any new launch on PPS, I'd want to run your numbers assuming your income stays flat and your existing home sells at today's price, not a projected future one. If the numbers still work under those more conservative assumptions, you're in a genuinely strong position. If they only work with optimistic assumptions, that's worth knowing before you sign, not after.
Considering a new launch and want to stress-test the numbers under realistic assumptions? Let's run through it together.
WhatsApp Bryan → More investment insights →Source: The Business Times, 7 July 2026, "Does progressive payment for new projects fuel high prices for new condos?" by Leslie Yee. Income data: Singapore Department of Statistics, 2025. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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