Private home prices rose 0.5% while HDB resale prices slipped 0.3% — the first back-to-back quarterly decline for HDB resale in close to seven years. But look closer, and both markets are more split within themselves than the headline suggests.
HDB and URA released their Q2 2026 flash estimates on 1 July, and at first glance the story looks simple: private property is up, HDB resale is down. But the more interesting story is what's happening underneath each of those two headline numbers — and it's not the same story in both markets.
The private residential price index rose 0.5% in Q2 2026, slower than Q1's 0.9% gain, bringing H1 2026 growth to just 1.4% — the smallest first-half increase since 2020. But that overall figure hides sharp divergence underneath. Landed home prices jumped 2.6% for the quarter and are now at their highest level ever, according to Knight Frank. Non-landed prices, by contrast, slipped 0.1%.
The regional split was just as uneven: Core Central Region condos gained 2%, while the Rest of Central Region fell 1.4% and the Outside Central Region suburbs slipped 0.2%. Analysts pointed to the Outside Central Region's heavier share of transactions — around 60% of Q2 deals — as one reason it weighed down the overall index relative to the smaller, pricier core.
Two different stories in new sale vs resale: new sale volume actually rose 3.5% to 2,093 units even as fewer new homes were launched, while resale volume fell 18.3% to 2,634 units — its lowest level since Q2 2020. Analysts linked the resale dip partly to a seasonal June school-holiday lull, with buyers travelling and fewer viewings happening.
One figure worth sitting with: the median resale price of non-landed private homes rose 1.5% to $1,792 psf even as overall resale volume fell sharply. That combination — fewer deals, higher median price — points to a market where only the more resilient, better-located resale stock is still trading actively, while softer listings simply sit.
HDB resale prices fell 0.3% in Q2, the second consecutive quarterly decline after Q1's 0.1% dip — the first time resale prices have fallen for two straight quarters in nearly seven years. Transaction volume also dropped, down 10.2% year-on-year to 6,268 units. Price declines were broad-based: more than half of all towns posted quarter-on-quarter drops, led by Serangoon (-7.9%), Marine Parade (-7.6%), Geylang (-6.9%) and Ang Mo Kio (-5.1%).
| Town | Q2 2026 Price Change |
|---|---|
| Serangoon | -7.9% |
| Marine Parade | -7.6% |
| Geylang | -6.9% |
| Ang Mo Kio | -5.1% |
| Sembawang | -3.3% |
| Central Area | +19.7% |
| Clementi | +4.5% |
| Jurong East | +4.0% |
Analysts point to a softer labour market and structural layoffs as prompting greater caution among buyers, alongside a strong pipeline of Build-To-Order flats giving buyers a viable, cheaper alternative to resale — a pattern some are calling a "flight to affordability," as buyers who might once have defaulted to resale now wait for BTO instead.
But here's the twist: while the broad market is cooling, the top end of HDB resale just hit a record. Million-dollar flat transactions climbed to 491 in Q2, up from 411 in Q1, pushing the H1 tally to 902 deals — well above last year's 763. For the first time, million-dollar transactions made up more than 7% of all resale deals in a single quarter. June alone saw 176 million-dollar flats change hands, a record for any single month.
The resale market is increasingly bifurcating — cooling in most towns, even as million-dollar flat sales keep climbing.
Most of these premium transactions were concentrated in Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bukit Merah — mature, central estates with strong location premiums that appear largely insulated from the broader softening happening elsewhere.
Supply is ramping up on both fronts. URA confirmed 4,745 private homes for Government Land Sales in H2 2026, bringing full-year confirmed supply to 9,320 units — more than 50% above the past decade's average. Huttons expects up to 12 new condo launches in H2, though it has trimmed its full-year sales volume forecast to 7,500–9,000 units, down from an earlier 8,000–10,000 range, citing fewer launches and normalising demand after last year's unusually high volumes.
On the HDB side, an October BTO exercise will offer around 7,960 flats across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun — buyers keen to apply need an HDB Flat Eligibility letter by 5 September. For the full year, analysts' forecasts span a wide range: private home prices are expected to rise 2.5–5%, while HDB resale could move anywhere from -2% to +5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which direction the current softening breaks.
If you're sitting on a flat in one of the towns that just posted a steep decline — Serangoon, Marine Parade, Geylang, Ang Mo Kio — this is worth a real conversation, not a reason to panic. A 5-8% quarterly dip in one town doesn't necessarily mean your specific unit has lost that much value; it depends heavily on your block, floor and the specific comparables. But if you've been on the fence about upgrading, a softening resale market paired with a strong BTO and new launch pipeline in H2 genuinely changes the calculus on timing.
For upgraders specifically: the combination of more new launch supply coming and resale demand cooling could mean better negotiating room on your next purchase than you've had in a while — while your existing flat, if it's not in one of the steepest-declining towns, may still fetch a reasonable price. Worth running the actual numbers before assuming either side of that equation.
Wondering what this quarter's numbers actually mean for your specific flat or condo? Let's run through it together.
WhatsApp Bryan → More market insights →Sources: The Business Times, 2 July 2026, "Private home prices inch up 0.5% while HDB resale prices slip further by 0.3% in Q2: flash data" by Ry-Anne Lim, and "Weaker jobs outlook dims HDB resale market as prices, volume slip further in Q2" by Chong Xin Wei. The Straits Times, 2 July 2026, "HDB resale prices dip for second straight quarter, private-home price growth eases" by Isabelle Liew. Figures are flash estimates from HDB and URA and subject to revision. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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