New home sales are down 11.6% this year, but launches fell even faster. A thinner pipeline has flattered the headline numbers — Q4's Thomson Reserve, Lucerne Grand and Serra Residences will show whether demand is genuinely there.
Singapore developers sold 4,885 new private homes (excluding ECs) in the first seven months of 2026, down 11.6% year-on-year — but launches fell faster still, down 28.7% to 4,516 units. That's why the sales-to-launch ratio actually improved to 1.08, the first reading above 1 since 2022.
The headline numbers for Singapore's new private home market in 2026 look reasonably healthy at first glance — a sales-to-launch ratio above 1 for the first time since 2022. But that ratio is flattering a market that has actually seen both fewer launches and fewer sales than a year ago. "Developers are no longer selling into a rising tide in which every launch benefits equally. Every project now has to earn demand," said ERA Singapore CEO Marcus Chu — and Q4's launch calendar is where that claim gets tested against real buyers.
Developers sold 4,885 new private homes, excluding executive condominiums, in the first seven months of 2026 — down 11.6% from 5,527 a year earlier, according to PropNex citing URA figures. Units launched over the same period fell by a steeper 28.7%, to 4,516 from 6,334. PropNex CEO Kelvin Fong frames the shift plainly: developer sales outpaced launches by 8.2% in the first seven months of 2026, a reversal from a year earlier, when sales trailed launches by 12.7%.
| Year | New Launches (Units) | New Sales (Units) | Sales ÷ Launches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7,199 | 8,202 | 1.13 |
| 2022 | 3,124 | 5,216 | 1.67 |
| 2023 | 5,964 | 4,938 | 0.83 |
| 2024 | 2,621 | 2,503 | 0.95 |
| 2025 | 6,287 | 5,608 | 0.89 |
| 2026 (Jan-Jul) | 4,516 | 4,894 | 1.08 |
| 5-Year Average | 4,952 | 5,227 | 1.05 |
Alan Cheong, executive director of research and consultancy at Savills, points out that transaction volume this year has been constrained mainly by fewer launches rather than weaker demand outright. But he also flags that recent launches point to slowing take-up rates — several projects this year have opened well below the above-70% opening-weekend take-up that was typical in recent years, even though the annual ratio still looks respectable by historical standards.
This is where the "litmus test" framing comes in. October brings CDL, UOL Group and SingLand's 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve on Upper Thomson Road — one of the largest launches of the year. It joins City Developments' 570-unit Lucerne Grand on Lakeside Drive in Jurong, and Far East Organization's freehold 133-unit Serra Residences in Novena. PropNex estimates roughly 2,300 new private homes, excluding ECs, could be marketed over the remainder of 2026.
Wong Xian Yang, head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia at Cushman & Wakefield, singles out Thomson Reserve and Lucerne Grand as the launches to watch, given healthy recent take-up trends and low unsold inventory heading into the quarter. With a quieter launch calendar behind them, both projects arrive into a buyer pool that's had time to accumulate — the question is whether that pool actually converts at scale.
Two launches this year, priced almost identically, illustrate just how selective buyers have become. Tengah Garden Residences sold 99% of its 863 units at its April launch, averaging S$2,120 psf. Narra Residences, a 540-unit project, sold only 25% of its units at its January launch — at S$2,180 psf, barely S$60 psf higher.
What explains the gap: Tricia Song, CBRE's head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia, points to Tengah's affordable entry price, its first-mover status as Tengah estate's first private condo, and direct MRT and retail access. Narra's more established location and longer MRT walk offered less of a "transformation story" for buyers to buy into — proof that in this market, price alone doesn't move units; the narrative around a launch matters just as much.
Linda Chern, CBRE's head of residential services for Singapore, notes that some buyers are responding to fewer, pricier launches by shifting to the resale market for better value instead. Resale transactions made up 62% of total private home sales in the second quarter of 2026, according to CBRE — a meaningful jump from 52% roughly a year earlier. Tricia Song describes the current moderation as more of a "temporary pause" as the buyer pool builds ahead of the major pipeline launches still to come.
Part of what's driving buyers toward resale is that new launches are increasingly priced at a higher quantum as land costs climb. Homes priced at S$2 million or above made up 61% of new non-landed private home sales in the first seven months of 2026, up from 53.9% a year earlier, according to SRI. Mohan Sandrasegeran, SRI's head of research and data analytics, notes that buyers remain willing to pay more, but only for compelling attributes — location, connectivity, unit configuration and longer-term value all have to line up.
ERA's Marcus Chu identifies S$2.5 million as an important psychological affordability threshold for new non-landed homes — properties below that mark accounted for between 41% and 74% of monthly sales across January to August, according to URA Realis data cited by ERA. That's a wide range, and it underscores just how month-to-month sensitive this market has become to what's actually on offer, rather than moving on any single, steady trend.
Full-year forecasts reflect that same note of caution. PropNex projects around 9,000 new private home sales for 2026; ERA expects 8,000 to 9,000; CBRE projects 7,500 to 8,500 sales with price growth of 2% to 4%, barring major shocks. Any of those outcomes would be down from 2025, when developers sold 10,815 new units — a 67% surge from 6,469 units in 2024 that set an unusually high bar for this year to clear.
The 1.08 ratio is real, but I wouldn't read too much comfort into it — it's a function of developers holding back supply as much as it is buyers showing up. The Tengah-versus-Narra comparison is the part of this data I'd actually sit a buyer down with: two projects, nearly identical psf, wildly different outcomes. If you're evaluating a Q4 launch, the price per square foot is the least useful number on the page. What matters is the first-mover story, the walk to MRT, and whether the project is solving a problem buyers in that specific catchment actually have.
If you're weighing whether to buy now or wait: Thomson Reserve and Lucerne Grand landing with low prevailing unsold inventory is a genuinely different setup from earlier this year, when a thinner launch calendar meant less real competition for your attention as a buyer. A well-supplied Q4 with strong take-up would suggest the pause CBRE describes really is temporary — worth watching before assuming prices will keep drifting the way they have.
Deciding whether a Q4 launch fits your numbers, or whether resale makes more sense right now?
WhatsApp Bryan → More guides →Sources: The Business Times, 7 September 2026, "'No longer a rising tide': Upcoming Q4 launches will test Singapore homebuying demand"; The Business Times, 7 September 2026, "Singapore new private home launches and sales (January to July)" data table (Savills, URA). This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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