URA's final Q1 2026 statistics confirm overall private residential prices rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, led by a 2.2% jump in the Outside Central Region. With 55,800 units in the pipeline and vacancy ticking up, here is what the numbers mean before you buy or sell.
URA released its final Q1 2026 private residential statistics on 24 April 2026, and the headline is firmer than the earlier flash estimate suggested. Overall private residential prices rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter — up from the flash estimate of 0.3% and above the 0.6% recorded in Q4 2025. The revision reflects the full inclusion of late-quarter transactions, including Pinery Residences which launched and sold over 90% of units at above S$2,500 psf in the final days of March.
The market is not running away — but it is not cooling either. The Outside Central Region led all segments with a 2.2% quarterly price increase, while landed property prices saw a slight decrease of 0.4%. Non-landed properties overall rose 1.3%. The Core Central Region, despite two strong launches in Newport Residences and River Modern at new benchmark pricing, posted only 0.4% growth — suggesting that CCR buyers are more selective and the volume base is thinner.
| Segment | Q1 2026 QoQ | Q4 2025 QoQ | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCR Non-Landed | +2.2% | +1.3% | ↑ Accelerating |
| RCR Non-Landed | +0.9% | −0.2% | ↑ Rebounding |
| CCR Non-Landed | +0.4% | −0.2% | ↑ Recovering |
| Landed | −0.4% | +3.4% | ↓ Correcting |
| Overall Private Residential | +0.9% | +0.6% | ↑ Firming |
| Private Residential Rental | +0.3% | — | ↑ Stabilising |
Source: URA, 24 April 2026. Final Q1 2026 statistics.
The OCR's 2.2% quarterly jump is the headline number that demands attention. The Outside Central Region — covering areas like Tampines, Sengkang, Punggol, Jurong, Woodlands and Bukit Timah's suburban fringe — has historically been the most accessible entry point for private housing. It is where HDB upgraders make their first private purchase, where young families look for space, and where the majority of new launch volume concentrates.
The sharp Q1 increase was partly driven by Pinery Residences in Tampines, which set a new benchmark above S$2,500 psf for the area — a price point that would have been unthinkable for suburban Tampines five years ago. When a single well-located launch sells 90%+ at record prices, it pulls up the entire sub-market's comparable pricing.
The upgrader dynamic: OCR price growth is structurally supported by the HDB upgrading pipeline. As long as HDB resale prices remain elevated — the median 5-room resale flat in mature estates now regularly exceeds S$700,000 to S$800,000 — upgraders are arriving at the private market with meaningful equity. This demand floor is real and persistent. It does not disappear with a quarter of slower GDP growth.
URA pointed to about 55,800 private housing units, including executive condominiums, expected to be completed in the next few years. URA specifically noted the uncertain macroeconomic outlook and said households should continue to exercise prudence when buying property and taking mortgage loans. The 1H2026 Government Land Sales Confirmed List also adds about 4,600 units, including 635 EC units, which URA says is 50% above the average half-yearly Confirmed List supply over the past decade.
The vacancy rate for completed private residential units has already ticked up to 6.2%. This is not yet at levels that historically precede price corrections — that tends to happen above 8% to 9% — but the direction of travel matters. As completions from the 2022 to 2024 GLS cycle materialise over the next 18 to 24 months, rental competition will intensify in some sub-markets, particularly in the OCR where the bulk of new supply is concentrated.
If you are buying OCR purely for investment yield: The combination of rising vacancy and a large incoming supply pipeline means rental assumptions need to be conservative. Model your numbers at 90% occupancy and at a rental rate 5% to 10% below current market — not at today's peak occupancy and top-line rent. If the investment still works at those assumptions, it is a more durable bet.
Landed prices fell 0.4% in Q1 2026 after a strong 3.4% jump in Q4 2025. This is most likely a volume-driven correction rather than a fundamental repricing. Landed transactions are sparse by nature — a handful of high-value deals in either direction can move the index meaningfully. The Q4 2025 spike was partly driven by year-end deal closings; the Q1 pullback reflects the Chinese New Year lull and fewer transactions overall.
The structural case for landed property in Singapore remains intact: genuinely scarce, restricted to Singapore citizens, and irreplaceable in a land-constrained city. Short-term index movements in the landed segment should be read with that context in mind.
Total private home transactions declined by 39.7% quarter-on-quarter to 4,041 units, from 6,699 units in Q4 2025. This sounds alarming but is largely mechanical — Q4 2025 saw an unusually high number of project launches, including several that sold strongly over their respective launch weekends. Q1 2026 had significantly fewer new launches due to the Chinese New Year period. The underlying demand has not evaporated; it simply had fewer new products to absorb.
The more meaningful read is that median unit prices for resale non-landed private properties stayed almost unchanged, slightly decreasing to $1,763 psf in Q4 2025 from $1,765 psf in the previous quarter. Resale pricing has been remarkably stable — a sign that sellers are not panicking and buyers are not walking away. The market is orderly.
The Q1 2026 URA data tells a story of a market that is firming, not frothy. 0.9% quarterly growth is healthy, not speculative. The OCR's outperformance reflects genuine upgrader demand and the pricing benchmark set by well-received new launches — not irrational exuberance.
The numbers I would watch going into H2 2026 are the vacancy rate and the rental index. If vacancy continues to tick up as the supply pipeline completes, rental yields will compress. For owner-occupiers, this is largely irrelevant. For investors, it matters for the hold-period math.
The most important data point from this URA release is not the 0.9% price increase — it is URA's own explicit warning to exercise prudence on buying and mortgage-taking in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. That is not a message to avoid property; it is a message to enter with adequate financial buffers, conservative rental assumptions, and a medium-to-long term horizon. If you want to pressure-test your numbers before committing, I am happy to work through it with you.
Want to run your property numbers against the latest market data? Let's make sure your assumptions hold up.
WhatsApp Bryan → Run the calculators →Sources: URA Q1 2026 Final Statistics (24 April 2026), PropertyGuru, ERA Research, EdgeProp, 99.co. Flash estimate data from URA (1 April 2026). This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
No pressure, no obligation. Tell me what you're working through and I'll get back to you within 24 hours to arrange a time that works.
Your details are used solely to follow up on your consultation request. No spam, ever.