New condo launches are hitting S$3,000 psf and beyond. Developers are bidding aggressively for land — and those costs are being passed on to buyers. So is this the new floor, or is the market getting ahead of itself?
The numbers are hard to ignore. According to PropNex data, the average land rate for residential GLS sites sold in the first five months of 2026 hit S$1,397 psf ppr — almost 13% higher than the S$1,240 psf ppr average in 2025, which was itself 10% higher than in 2024.
That's two consecutive years of significant land cost increases. And when developers pay more for land, there's really only one direction new launch prices can go.
Strong take-up at recent launches has given developers the confidence to compete aggressively at government land sales. When projects like Emerald of Katong (99% sold at launch), The Orie (86% sold), and Penrith (97% sold) all hit the market at above S$2,700 psf and still sell out — developers take note.
The logic is straightforward: if buyers are absorbing these prices, the floor keeps rising. Higher land costs immediately raise project break-even levels, pulling new launch prices up alongside rising construction costs.
Here's what often gets overlooked in the new launch excitement: the gap between new sale prices and resale prices has been widening for years, and it's now at historically high levels.
| Year | New Sale (S$ psf) | Resale (S$ psf) | Price Gap (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,664 | 1,258 | 32.3% |
| 2020 | 1,694 | 1,236 | 37.1% |
| 2021 | 1,834 | 1,321 | 38.8% |
| 2022 | 2,233 | 1,440 | 55.1% |
| 2023 | 2,486 | 1,578 | 57.5% |
| 2024 | 2,466 | 1,661 | 48.5% |
| 2025 | 2,572 | 1,747 | 47.2% |
| 2026* | 2,573 | 1,767 | 45.6% |
Even as new launch prices have climbed steeply since 2022, resale prices have also risen steadily — just at a slower pace. The gap has actually narrowed slightly from its 2023 peak of 57.5%, which tells us resale is still holding value well.
For new launch buyers, the key question is always: can the project appreciate meaningfully from today's price? With new launches already priced at S$2,500–$3,000+ psf, the upside depends heavily on location, product differentiation, and continued demand from both locals and foreign buyers.
For resale buyers, the current environment is arguably more interesting. You're entering at a 40–45% discount to new launch pricing, and resale values have been demonstrably resilient. Well-located resale units in the OCR and RCR offer genuine value, especially for buyers who aren't chasing the "new and shiny" premium.
S$3,000 psf isn't necessarily "too expensive" in isolation — it depends entirely on what you're buying, where, and why. I've seen clients overpay for new launches chasing capital gains, and I've seen clients find exceptional value in resale units that the market has overlooked.
What I tell everyone: don't buy a number. Buy a specific unit, in a specific location, that makes sense for your specific financial situation. The market can sustain these prices as long as demand holds — but individual decisions still need to be made individually.
If you're trying to figure out whether now is the right time for you, let's talk through your numbers properly. No pressure, just clarity.
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