The overall price index barely moved, but underneath it the HDB market is splitting. Large flats are selling faster than at any time since 2022, while the rest of the market treads water.
HDB's final figures, released on 23 October, show resale prices fell 0.1% in Q3 2026, slightly better than the 0.2% flash estimate. It's the third straight quarterly dip. But 7,645 flats changed hands, up 19.5% from Q2, and sales of the largest flats rose sharply.
Three weeks ago I wrote about the Q3 flash estimates. The final numbers are now out, and they confirm the main story with one change worth noting: the price dip was smaller, and the volume increase was larger, than the early data suggested.
| Quarter | Resale price index | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (final) | 202.5 | −0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | 202.8 | −0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 203.4 | −0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | 203.6 | 0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | 203.7 | +0.4% |
Prices have now dipped for three quarters in a row, starting with Q1's 0.1% fall, the first in close to seven years. Volume tells a different story: 7,645 resale transactions in Q3, up 19.5% from 6,396 in Q2 and 5.9% higher than the 7,221 in Q3 2025.
The big ones. Five-room sales rose 26.7% to 1,867 and executive flat sales jumped 41.6% to 545. Huttons Asia's Lee Sze Teck said this is the highest number of five-room and larger flats sold since Q3 2022, and attributed much of it to private home downgraders following the removal of the 15-month wait-out on 28 July.
| Flat type | Q3 2026 sales | Change from Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| Five-room | 1,867 | +26.7% |
| Executive | 545 | +41.6% |
| All flat types | 7,645 | +19.5% |
Before the rules changed, buyers aged 55 and above were already exempt from the wait-out if they bought a four-room or smaller flat. The people newly able to buy straight away were younger private owners, and owners of any age wanting a five-room or executive flat. That's exactly where volume rose most.
So are downgraders driving the market or not? HDB said it hasn't seen a significant increase in prices or in the number of flats bought by private property downgraders since July. Analysts link the surge in big-flat sales to them. Both can be true: the effect is concentrated in larger flats rather than across the whole market, and it adds volume more than it lifts the overall price index.
HDB's data shows executive flats in Sengkang had the highest median price in Q3, at S$1.13 million. Four-room flats in Queenstown came second at S$1.065 million, up from S$1.035 million in Q2.
The number of million-dollar flats sold rose to 596 in Q3 from 490 in Q2, bringing the total for the first nine months of 2026 to 1,497. ERA's Eugene Lim said about half of the million-dollar transactions were flats aged 15 years and below. Twenty-six flats sold for S$1.5 million or more, all five-room or executive flats in Bishan, Bukit Merah, Clementi, Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Toa Payoh and the central area.
HDB will offer about 7,960 flats in its November BTO exercise across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun, including assisted living flats in Toa Payoh. HDB and URA said the economic outlook remains uncertain and urged households to be prudent with purchases and mortgages.
If you own a five-room or executive flat, this is the strongest buyer pool in four years. The HDB sale proceeds calculator shows your cash after the loan, CPF refund with accrued interest and fees, so you know what you have for your next move.
Open the HDB sale proceeds calculator →To see what flats near your MRT station are fetching, try my HDB prices by MRT map.
The headline index makes the HDB market look flat. It isn't. There are now two different markets, and which one you're in depends on what you own.
If you own a five-room or executive flat, especially in a mature estate or a newer block, you have more motivated buyers than at any time since 2022, including private owners with cash who no longer have to wait 15 months. That's a good time to test the market, as long as you price against recent transactions for your flat type and town, not the record headlines.
If you own a three- or four-room flat outside the central estates, prices have been flat for nine months, and more supply is coming from flats reaching MOP and from BTO launches. Price realistically and present the flat well. Buyers have choice.
If you're an HDB upgrader, remember the other side of the trade. Private prices rose another 1.4% in Q3. The longer your flat stays flat while private homes rise, the bigger the gap you need to fund.
Own a five-room or executive flat and wondering what it would fetch right now? Or working out whether to sell or wait? Let's look at your numbers.
WhatsApp Bryan → More guides →Sources: The Straits Times, 24 October 2026, "HDB Q3 resale prices dip 0.1% even as more flats sold" by Isabelle Liew, reporting HDB and URA data released on 23 October 2026. See also our Q3 flash estimates and the removal of the 15-month wait-out period. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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