HDB resale prices dipped for a third straight quarter, million-dollar flat sales climbed, and private prices rose faster than in Q2. Here's what the Q3 flash estimates show and what they mean for upgraders.
Flash estimates released on 1 October show HDB resale prices fell 0.2% in Q3 2026, the third straight quarterly decline, even though the 15-month wait-out for private owners was lifted on 28 July. Private home prices rose 1.4%, up from 0.5% in Q2, although transactions fell by about 30%.
When the government lifted the 15-month wait-out for private owners buying HDB resale flats on 28 July, many people expected resale prices to get a boost from cash-rich downgraders. The first quarter of data since then shows no such boost.
HDB's flash estimate put the resale price index at 202.4, down 0.2% from Q2. It's the third quarterly decline in a row, after a 0.1% dip in Q1 that was the first in close to seven years, and a 0.3% fall in Q2.
| Quarter | HDB resale index | Change | URA private index | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (flash) | 202.4 | −0.2% | 222.5 | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | 202.8 | −0.3% | 219.4 | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | 203.4 | −0.1% | 218.3 | +0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | 203.6 | 0.0% | 216.4 | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | 203.7 | +0.4% | 215.1 | +0.9% |
Lower prices haven't come with fewer sales. 7,528 flats changed hands in Q3, up 5.2% from 7,157 a year earlier. HDB said it had not seen a significant rise in prices or in the number of flats bought by private property downgraders since the wait-out was lifted, and that it would continue to monitor the market.
Analysts gave three reasons. ERA Singapore's Eugene Lim pointed to supply: about 13,480 flats reach their five-year minimum occupation period in 2026, so more owners can sell. He also cited a strong BTO pipeline and the higher BTO income ceiling announced by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in August, raised from S$14,000 to S$16,000 for families and from S$7,000 to S$8,000 for singles. Both draw some buyers away from resale flats.
Realion's Christine Sun noted that it takes time for transactions to complete, so the policy change may not show up in the data yet, even though buying interest from private owners has increased noticeably. And before the change, buyers aged 55 and above were already exempt from the wait-out if they bought a four-room or smaller flat, so part of this group never faced the rule.
597 flats sold for at least S$1 million in Q3, up from 491 in Q2, bringing the total for the first nine months of 2026 to 1,499. Huttons Asia's Lee Sze Teck said about 353 of these were five-room and larger flats, up from 277 in the previous quarter, which he linked partly to private home downgraders. Most of the million-dollar deals were in Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bukit Merah.
The HDB market is splitting in two. The overall index has been flat for nine months, while larger flats in mature, central estates keep setting records. If you own a well-located five-room or executive flat, you're in a different market from someone selling a four-room flat further out. I broke down September's record resale deals in an earlier piece.
URA's flash estimate showed private home prices up 1.4% in Q3, faster than Q2's 0.5%, but on about 30% fewer transactions: 4,296 units against 6,148 in Q2. The drop largely reflects a quiet launch calendar. In August, for example, only one project launched.
| Segment | Q3 2026 (flash) | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Landed | +2.8% | — |
| Non-landed (overall) | +0.9% | −0.1% |
| Outside Central Region (suburbs) | +2.2% | — |
| Rest of Central Region (city fringe) | +0.2% | — |
| Core Central Region (prime) | −0.1% | +1.8% |
URA said private prices have risen by an average of 0.9% a quarter over the first three quarters of 2026, the same pace as in 2025. That's steady growth rather than a surge. Knight Frank's Leonard Tay attributed part of the Q3 rise to landed homes, which are up 4.9% so far this year as buyers move up from condominiums. I wrote about why more landed homes may come to market in 2027 separately.
ERA's Marcus Chu expects private sales to pick up in Q4 as about 2,000 new condo units come from Lucerne Grand, The Serra Residences and Thomson Reserve. Supply further out is rising too. URA said 4,745 private homes will be launched under the second-half 2026 Government Land Sales programme, bringing confirmed supply for the year to 9,320 units, more than 50% above the average of the past ten years. About 60,600 private homes, including ECs, are expected to be completed over the next few years.
On the HDB side, about 7,960 flats will be offered in the November BTO exercise across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun, including assisted living flats in Toa Payoh. HDB and URA said the economic outlook remains uncertain and advised households to be prudent when buying property and taking on mortgages.
The island-wide index hides big differences between towns and flat types. My HDB price map shows the median resale psf around every MRT station, updated monthly, so you can see where your own flat sits.
Open HDB prices by MRT →Look at the two indices over a full year. From Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, the HDB resale index slipped about 0.6% while the private index rose about 3.4%. For an HDB upgrader, that's the number that matters.
Here's a simple illustration. If your flat was worth S$800,000 a year ago and the condo you wanted was S$1.8 million, the gap was S$1 million. Apply the index moves and your flat is now about S$795,000 while the condo is about S$1.86 million. The gap has grown by roughly S$67,000 in twelve months, without you doing anything. Every quarter you wait while the two markets move apart makes upgrading a little more expensive.
If you're selling an HDB flat, price it against what's actually transacting for your flat type in your town, not against the record deals in the news. Those records are mostly large flats in central estates. Overall, prices have been flat for nine months, and buyers know it.
These are flash figures based on most of the quarter's transactions. The final Q3 numbers come out later in October, and they usually move only slightly.
Planning to sell your HDB flat or upgrade in the next year? Let's work out what your flat is likely to fetch and how big your upgrading gap really is.
WhatsApp Bryan → More guides →Sources: The Straits Times, 2 October 2026, "HDB Q3 resale prices dip despite lifting of 15-month wait-out period" by Isabelle Liew, reporting HDB and URA flash estimates released on 1 October 2026. Price index data: HDB, URA. Flash estimates are preliminary and may be revised. The upgrading-gap example is my own illustration using the published index changes. See also our Q2 2026 flash estimates. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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