Prices kept rising through a quiet quarter, unsold stock grew, and rents picked up. With nearly 2,000 new homes launching in Q4, here's where the private market stands.
URA's final figures confirm private home prices rose 1.4% in Q3 2026, the fastest pace in seven quarters, taking growth for the first nine months to 2.8%. At the same time, overall transactions fell 16.3% and developers sold just 1,183 new homes, down 44.7% from Q2.
The flash estimate at the start of October showed private prices up 1.4%. The final figures released on 23 October confirm it, and fill in the rest of the picture: fewer sales, more unsold stock and a stronger rental market.
URA's price index rose 1.4%, up from 0.5% in Q2 and the fastest quarterly rise in seven quarters. That takes growth for the first nine months of 2026 to 2.8%. URA said prices have risen by an average of 0.9% a quarter this year, similar to 2025.
| Segment | Q3 2026 change |
|---|---|
| Landed | +2.9% |
| Outside Central Region (suburbs), non-landed | +2.3% |
| All non-landed | +1.0% |
| Core Central Region (prime), non-landed | +0.3% |
| Rest of Central Region (city fringe), non-landed | 0.0% |
ERA's Marcus Chu said strong take-up at Dunearn House and Lentor Gardens Residences, which each sold more than 60% of their available units, contributed to the rise. Huttons Asia's Mark Yip pointed out that suburban non-landed prices have now risen 4.4% in the first nine months, more than the 3.2% for all of 2025.
Mostly because there was little new to buy. Developers launched only 1,140 units in Q3, down 36.1% from 1,783 in Q2, as they held back during the Lunar Seventh Month. New home sales (excluding ECs) fell 44.7% to 1,183 units. Overall private transactions fell 16.3% to 5,146, a smaller drop than the flash estimate suggested.
Cushman and Wakefield's Wong Xian Yang said sales slowed across all types: sub-sales fell 16.5% and resales dipped 0.3%. Total sales for the first three quarters reached 16,707 units, about 16% lower than a year earlier. CBRE's Tricia Song expects developers to sell 7,000 to 8,000 new homes this year, below 2025's 10,815 and the five-year average of 8,766.
Watch the suburbs. Mark Yip noted that suburban transaction volume fell 27.2% in Q3 even as prices there rose fastest, and put it down to affordability concerns. Prices rising while fewer people buy is often an early sign that buyers are reaching their limit.
Cushman and Wakefield said unsold inventory rose 26.7% in a quarter to 19,076 units, but remains below the 10-year average of 21,498. In its view, inventory is still limited enough to support prices, though developers have become more selective when bidding for land.
A much busier quarter. Three major launches are adding nearly 2,000 homes: Lucerne Grand in Lakeside, The Serra Residences in Novena and Thomson Reserve in Upper Thomson.
Thomson Reserve, a 1,268-unit project in the city fringe, launches on 31 October with prices from S$2,608 psf. It has drawn about 23,000 visitors since its preview opened on 17 October. Realion's Christine Sun expects its size and pricing to lift the overall price index in Q4. Analysts are forecasting full-year price growth of 3% to 5%.
Newmark's Wong Shanting expects the resale market to get busier as higher new launch prices make resale homes look better value, and as some private owners right-size into HDB flats now that the 15-month wait-out is gone. Newmark raised its forecast for combined resale and sub-sale transactions to 14,000 to 15,000 units, from 13,000 to 14,000.
| Rental indicator | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|
| Private rents, overall | +1.3% (vs +0.7% in Q2) |
| Suburban (OCR) rents | +3.1% |
| Prime (CCR) rents | −0.3% |
| Vacancy rate, completed private homes | 7.2% (from 6.4%) |
| Rental contracts signed | 28,423, the most since 1995 |
Leasing activity was the strongest on record, according to PropNex, yet vacancy also rose as more completed homes came onto the market. Cushman and Wakefield expects rents to rise by up to 3% in 2026, helped by a limited completion pipeline: about 7,783 private homes are due to complete this year, well below the 10-year average of 10,837. CBRE's Song forecasts 2% to 3% rental growth but warned that leasing may take longer as tenants become more selective, especially with slower hiring.
New launches are paid in stages during construction, while a resale home is paid in full at completion. The outlay comparison calculator puts both side by side, so you can see the cash, CPF and loan each one needs from you.
Open the outlay comparison calculator →Q3 was quiet because there was little to buy, not because buyers gave up. Prices still rose, and the launches that did come out sold well. Q4 will be a real test, with nearly 2,000 new homes plus 19,000 unsold units competing for the same buyers.
If you're buying, you have more choice now than at any point this year. Compare the new launches against resale condos nearby. With new launch prices climbing, a well-located resale unit can be better value, and you can move in straight away.
If you're selling a resale condo, price against the new launches near you, because that's what buyers will compare you with. The resale market is expected to get busier, and well-priced units should move.
If you're a landlord, demand is strong, but so is supply. Rents are rising in the suburbs, while vacancy is up and tenants are taking longer to decide. Keep your unit well maintained and priced right to avoid long gaps between tenants.
Weighing a Q4 launch against a resale condo, or planning to sell or lease out your unit? Let's look at what the numbers mean for you.
WhatsApp Bryan → More guides →Sources: The Business Times, 24 October 2026, "Home sales set to recover in Q4 with prices seen rising further on new launch momentum" by Jeanne Mah; The Straits Times, 24 October 2026, "HDB Q3 resale prices dip 0.1% even as more flats sold" by Isabelle Liew. Data from URA released 23 October 2026, with analyst commentary as reported. Forecasts are not guarantees. See also the September 2026 new home sales report. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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